Study impact of Corona Pandemic on Geopolitics

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Geopolitics and The Corona Pandemic: An Impact Study

19 Jul 2020
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Case Study

Vladimir Lenin, the former premier of the Soviet Union, once famously quoted – “There are decades where nothing happens; there are weeks where decades happen.” And 2020 is one such decade. Yes, you read it right! 2020, till the present date, is by far the most despised year.

January 5th, when the entire world was still engrossed in new year’s festivities, came in the first grim news of the year. Qassim Soleimani – Major general of the Iranian – Killed in U.S. drone strikes, the situation referred to as The Shia crescendo. As tensions escalated between the two nuclear giants, WW-III began trending on Twitter, and so did the memes. Despite the strike and the rhetoric that followed it, neither of the two parties wanted a military confrontation, and the horrendous consequences of another world war got alleviated for the time being.

Traveling 1900 miles east of Baghdad to India, New Delhi in the subsequent month, outcries for the new Citizenship and Immigration Act, which considered religious affiliations were underway. Protests of varied kinds continued to spread like wildfire all across India. A harsh Government response further provoked demonstrations, making it even more difficult for the incumbent government to deal with the emboldened opposition leaders and the sluggish economy.

Several other global adversities popped up during this period. The Australian forest fires, with an estimated one billion animal deaths, and not to mention the U.S. – China trade war, which further penetrated the technology sector, disrupting the flow of technology, talent, and investment. That created a cultural divide, casting a geopolitical chill over the Global business.

At this juncture, it is worthwhile citing one of my all-time favorite quotes by Mark Twain – “Cheer up! The worst is yet to come.” How much more surreal can 2020 be? Before anybody could figure out the impending doom of COVID – 19 virus, a new strain of virus never identified before, was smoldering all this while. The virus gradually proliferated all across the globe in a matter of few weeks, as Iran, Italy, S. Korea, and Japan reported surging cases.

Who would have believed a year ago that a virus could bring the entire world to a standstill, a world which is adept at state-of-the-art healthcare? The virus, as we all know, is a threat to everyone. But it is potentially more perilous to the elderly, especially those with pre-existing health conditions like cardiovascular and diabetic patients. The authorities worldwide responded by implementing traveling restrictions, lockdowns, facilitating quarantine, etc.

The virus did not only have immense implications on the health of the population, but it also caused global social and economic disruptions, including the largest global recession since The Great Depression. It had led to postponement/cancellation of sporting, religious, political, and cultural events, widespread supply shortage, which was aggravated by panic buying and disruption in supply chains. Schools, universities, and colleges have been closed in over 172 countries, affecting 98.5% of the student population.

China, the evident source of the virus, had to face a lot of ignominy over this state of pandemonium. Misinformation about the virus, which had been circulated over social and mass media, has left China red in the face. There have been reported incidents of xenophobia and discrimination for the Chinese. Although China has come up with all sorts of stories proving its innocence, it seems highly unusual to a lot of people as to why the “People’s Republic” of China and the WHO failed to take notice such a potential threat to humanity, a pandemic which could be constricted to merely an epidemic. Somehow, it seems that the truth has been misinterpreted.

As of today, COVID has claimed close to 555 thousand lives worldwide. Loss of lives is irretrievable damage to society, but apart from the deaths, COVID has severely demobilized the global economy. Industries are bearing the brunt of this due to the lockdowns, which were being imposed in most countries. Primarily, tourism and transportation have been hit the worst. Production levels have been abysmal. Even the world’s most powerful economies are now facing the threat of high inflation levels and unemployment rates. Consider, for example, the lockdown in India, which has resulted in a loss of 2% points, for each month of lockdown, in the Annual GDP growth rate. The stark truth is that the COVID – 19 pandemics has undoubtedly presented the saturnine phase of our lives.

Whatever happens, happens for a reason. We have known this adage from Adam. So, after reading close to 2 pages on pessimism, the question arises – Is there a silver lining to this grey cloud? The question becomes even more pertinent to budding managers like us. How can an MBA help one stand out once the economy restarts? The longer the lockdown goes on, it is more likely that the furloughed staff and those out of work will see their skillsets become obsolete. An MBA can be possibly the missing piece in the jigsaw that will reignite one’s career and help the individual stand out in the post corona job market.

The industrial experts and the veterans suggest that there will be one area in particular that will see long-term growth and opportunity spike once the pandemic subsides – Digital Transformation. Consulting firms will look for digital-savvy MBAs. Especially in a B-school like SOIL, where students hail from very different industries, this diversity will help students understand every mechanism that can make or break business. We have to expect everything to be digital and technical now. Therefore, having the ability and agility to adopt a new skill will be paramount. So, my suggestion would be to stop being sequestered in your comfort zones and to break the shackles which hold you back to enter a post COVID world with resilience.

Thought Piece by:

Udit Bhalla

PGPM – Business Leadership, Class of 2021

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